Warren Gatland is Right

BBC Rugby has recently posted a story discussing Gatland's strong statements toward English rugby. He says that the Guinness Premiership is weak. I must concur. Ronan O'Gara received some heat a number of years back when he said bad things about the Premiership just ahead of Munster's Heineken Cup tie with Leicester at Welford Road. Luckily for O'Gara, he was able to kick a monster penalty from his own half in driving rain with only seconds to go in order to back up his claim and top the English giants.

Gatland has picked only one foreign-based player for his Welsh squad, Dwayne Peel, which is completely justified given the man's abilities and the Welsh scrum-half issue at the moment. The Magners League has had a roller coaster season so far. The top of the table has been occupied by many different teams in the early part of the season, including three of the four Irish provinces. This helps to show just how strong the Magners League is becoming. Completely unlike the Guinness Premiership, which has only a few real contenders: London Wasps, Leicester Tigers and now the London Irish. Gloucester always shows promise but falters. Bath is not as strong as they once were. Leeds is a joke of a team, bound for relegation again this season. The Saracens may be undefeated and sit atop the GP table, but five of their six wins have seen the opponents walk away with a bonus point loss. This could show their tenacity and ability to hang on, but a week two victory over London Irish and a squeaker against Northampton do not prove much so early in the season.

The real proving ground is the Heineken Cup, the only place that full strength sides from all the Home Nations are able to compete against each other in a hugely competitive atmosphere. The GP teams have faired 5-8-1 through two rounds so far. Irish teams have broken even at 3-3, Welsh teams 5-2-1 and the Scots 1-3, despite early season promise shown in the ML.

Former powerhouse Bath hasn't won since 1996 in the Guinness Premiership, and except for blips on the radar from Newcastle in 1998 and Sale in 2006, it has been a two horse race with London Wasps and Leicester Tigers swapping titles. A two team tournament is hardly a fierce competition, rather, a fierce rivalry. The Magners League, however, has shown more competition. Though it has a shorter history, five different teams have won the tournament, with no team claiming more than two titles. All three nations have produced a winner or runner up.

I will not bash the Guinness Premiership, but it is not the premier tournament in the Northern Hemisphere. It is inferior to the Magners League and to the French Top 14, possibly the league with the most skilled of players. London Wasps and Leicester Tigers will continue to be extremely successful as the best teams in the GP, but Warren Gatland is correct. The Guinness Premiership is weak. How can this be changed? The change is already underway with Martin Johnson at the helm of English rugby, as he is very strict on foreign-based players. He allows very few into the national setup.

That and ditching Danny Cipriani. He has potential, but Stuart Barnes is in love with the man and that right there should raise a few brows.

~Tyler

Heineken Cup Outlook and the Autumn International injury outlook

The first two rounds of the Heineken Cup are done and there are some big surprises. Treviso defeated the French Champions Perpignan, Bath lost both of their matches and look out of the running, the Scarlets managed to win two and last year's Welsh strength Cardiff underperformed. As the pools stand right now, its a story about the French. Only one English teams sits atop a pool, with one Irish and one Welsh joining them.

This Heineken Cup campaign has been, thus far, one of nail-biter endings. Almost two-thirds of all the games played in the opening two rounds could have been changed with one additional unconverted try, meaning a 4 point or less spread. This is rugby. This is what the Heineken Cup is all about. I'd rather see a two point Munster victory than a 35 point drubbing. I'd rather see Cardiff go down to a late penalty than close out the final 15 minutes. (Nothing against Cardiff!)

I had predicted that the Ospreys v. Clermont game would be the game of the week, and I was close. But the real game of the week was Bath v. Stade Francais. The game bounced back and forth throughout, with most of the points coming from the boot of Julien Dupuy. Bath had a lead early on, but Dupuy kicked a penalty for Stade just about every 10 minutes in the second and third quarter of the game, keeping them within reach.

In the December matches, where teams are played back-to-back, there is an opportunity for teams to cement a spot at the top. Northampton plays Treviso, Biarritz plays the Dragons and the Ospreys play Viadana. Some teams have very tough games, such as the Scarlets having to play Champions Leinster. A sweep for either team could be enough to secure the pool.

As for the upcoming Autumn Internationals, Australia is looking for a Grand Slam, and begin against the struggling English. The English have already lost their two best props, Sheridan and Vickery. But they have a healthy Jonny Wilkinson, which can sometimes mean a win from kickoff. The Welsh have a few injuries as well, while the Irish are looking relatively healthy (save for O'Gara's poor kicking thus far) and the Scottish might have ridden out their early-season success. Nonetheless, Australia won't get a Grand Slam because they always have trouble against Wales and Ireland plays too well at home.

~Tyler

Round 2!

So the first round of the Heineken Cup produced some interesting scores. Perpignan, the French giant, lost to lowly Treviso. It is certainly the biggest Italian victory in the history of European Cup rugby, if not the biggest in Italian club history. Unfortunately, it probably will not be repeated this week. London Irish topped the Champions, Leinster, who looked trapped by Irish's wonderful defense. Leinster often looked the better attacking team, only to come up short in their own (usually great) defense. The Ospreys fought back to tie Leicester and should be pretty happy with that draw, given the fact that they were away from home and nearly lost it to Leicester in the end, who had to fight back from a huge deficit.

Round 2

Pool 1

Munster v. Treviso. While Treviso won last week and Munster lost, it is inconceivable that Munster would lose at home to an Italian minnow. It might not be a massive victory, if Treviso can manage to bring some of that spunk they showed last week to Thomond Park, but it should be a Munster victory nonetheless.

Perpignan v. Saints. This game looks to be one of the better games of the weekend. The Saints will be going to France on a high after defeating the Heineken Cup poster boys last weekend. Unfortunately, the French will be looking to strike back and restore some of their pride from not only the Heineken Cup, but their poor season to date. However, if Geraghty can manage to find half the brilliance he showed last weekend, Northampton can smile atop Pool 1 yet again.

Pool 2

Dragons v. Warriors. This Magners League match-up looks to possibly be a season turner for the Dragons, should they get a win. Gloucester had a scare last week as they relied on a Welshman's boot to secure a very late penalty and a win over the lowly Welsh team. The Dragons have never performed well in Europe and it would take an immense effort to recreate what they had last weekend. Glasgow, on the other hand, has been very solid in the early weeks of the Magners League, and should be able to pull out a victory.

Biarritz v. Gloucester. While this would have been a massively important game in years past, it is not the highlight it used to be. Its still a big game, but Biarritz has lost some of their luster and Gloucester never performs in the biggest of games. Yet, Biarritz defends their home turf very well and look to be in prime position to add a second win to their season.

Pool 3

Viadana v. Leicester. Clermont put almost 20 points past the Italians, and the English team of Leicester will do better than that. Win for Leicester.

Ospreys v. Clermont. This is the game of the weekend. The Ospreys need a big boost to get their season rolling in both the Heineken Cup and Magners League, although their two point draw last week could help them when Leicester visit Wales in January. The best team in France is Clermont, at the moment, and despite a relatively low victory margin against Viadana, they should give Ospreys a huge run. The Ospreys have the most potential of any team in Europe, and consistently fail to reach it. However, with Gavin Henson on leave, they are better off. He is a fantastic player but, he never looks like he wants to play. He is overly nonchalant. With Biggar and Hook running the show, the Ospreys should be able to give the home crowd a victory.

Now, if we can only get a consistent showing from Shane Williams. The man is the essence of brilliance on minute, and utterly anonymous the next.

~Tyler

So After last week's show I might as well throw all of my predictions out the window. Congrats to the Cardiff Blues and the Scarlets, way to represent Wales!

Pool 4:

Edinburgh vs. Ulster: Now I got these two teams predicted right, and Ulster has stopped the Edinburgh show already this season, and Edinburgh has been on quite a down swing since their firey start. So to put things simply I expect Ulster to beat Edinburgh.

Stade Francais vs. Bath: I have to stick with my French predictions on this one. Stade is looking to get in a groove, and Bath isn't likely to be the team to stop them.

Pool 5:

Cardiff Blues vs. Sale: As the Blues turned things around last week against the 'Quins I have a small hope for the Blues this weekend. So for my upset of the weekend I choose the Blues to beat the 'Quins.

Toulouse vs. Harlequins: After the 'Quin's lose to the Blues last weekend they appear to be stumbling just a bit, Toulouse on the other hand, they took a victory when it was presented to them. So i have all faith that Toulouse will win again this weekend.

Pool 6:

Scarlets vs. London Irish: Now I am ecstatic that I got the Scarlet's prediction wrong, and have faith that this may be the momentum swing they have been needing for years, but it comes at an ill time. Personally if the Scarlets weren't playing a Heiniken Cup game this weekend, and they weren't playing on of the top three team, I would say they would win. But instead they are playing the London Irish, who have just stolen a victory from Leinster. Two teams with season making, or breaking, momentum, but only one will win. Once again I have to shy away from my club team and say that The Irish will walk off the feild the victors.

Leinster vs. Brive: Two teams searching for redemption. Origional pool favorites, Leinster, were popped in the face by the Irish last weekend. And moderate performing Brive was upset by the struggling Scarlets. Needless to say this is a must win for both teams, but I will go with Leinster again this weekend, who knows, if I'm wrong again then the Scarlets may be better off that I thought.

~Conner

Heineken Cup 2009, round one

The Heineken Cup starts this weekend! Ireland has performed very well in the recent tournaments, winning three of four. I hope to see the Irish teams doing well this year, despite certain bad games recently.

I will be doing Pools 1-3:

1: Treviso, Munster, Northampton, Perpignan

2: Biarritz, Ulster, Gloucester and Newport-Gwent Dragons

3: Viadana, Ospreys, Leicester and Clermont

Pool 1:

Northampton v. Munster. Given the recent form of Munster, it was a very hard loss to take this past weekend. Especially to rivals Leinster. Munster always (always!) plays fantastically in the Heineken Cup, and I hope that this weekend is no different. Northampton hosts Munster this weekend. Northampton lost this past weekend and beat Leeds the previous week (not difficult) so its hard to judge their form. Munster, on the other hand, played absolutely horrible. The worst I have ever seen. O'Gara couldn't kick and no one could make five meters. Munster will definitely bounce back, but the question is how soon? I honestly cannot see Munster beating Northampton away, given O'Gara's inability to kick so far this year and their bad form. Gheraty for Northampton has been in very good form and should help steer them home to a win.

Perpignan will annihilate Treviso. No questions asked.

Pool 2:

Gloucester v. Dragons. It is an interesting match since Gloucester has continually failed to meet their potential, especially in recent seasons. Given the fact that they have the weakest of the Welsh regions to compete with, they should not have to worry to much. The Dragons managed to pull off a win, albeit an ugly one, against the lowliest of teams: Connacht. The Dragons will not beat Gloucester, especially being the away team.

Glasgow v. Biarritz. Last year, Glasgow was able to pull off some amazing upsets in the Heineken Cup and have done very well for themselves so far in the Magners League this year. They have surprised everyone, and even Dan Parks is playing consistently well, something somewhat foreign for a long time as he did not quite live up to his potential. Given Biarritz's relative fall from their previous almost unbeatable persona, I think Glasgow should be able to impress the home crowd with a victory against the French.

Pool 3:

Clermont v. Viadana. Again. No questions. Clermont is a top club in the French Top 14 and Viadana is an Italian whipping boy.

Leicester v. Ospreys. The Ospreys showed up this past weekend with a good victory, but Leicester is Leicester. They have continually shown how good they are by bringing home silverware. The Ospreys tend to be a hit or miss team, with many players failing to meet their potential. With a lineup like the Ospreys have, they should be crushing teams week in and week out, even without Gavin Henson. Dan Biggar is causing a stir by trying to (and successfully so far) stealing James Hook's No. 10 jersey. But, the Ospreys look to just be getting started on their season, albeit a slow start. Despite the Tigers having home field advantage, the Ospreys should be able to nudge them by a few points.

~Tyler

It is good to see that the Irish have been sustaining power since their Six Nations victory. Unfortuanatley for us Welsh fans, we have to endure another time of hardship; as most of the Welsh teams have fallen off the face of the earth.

I Will cover pools 4-6:

4: Bath, Edinburgh, Stade Francais, Ulster

5: Cardiff Blues, Harlequins, Sale, Toulouse

6: Brive, Leinster, London Irish, Scarlets

Pool 4:

Ulster vs. Bath: Entering this game, it would seem that Ulster is the heavy favorite, and rightly so. Because Ulster is sitting pretty in second in the Magners League, while Bath is struggling to stay in the middle of the field in the Guinness Premiership. Ulster being 3-0-2 is my choice to top the 1-1-3 team of Bath.

Edinburgh vs. Stade Francais: Now this is the match to watch. Edinburgh is just coming off a hot streak where they were sitting at the top of the table in Magners League, so they've got the taste of victory in their mouths. Stade goes without saying, they are always a good team, and they always show up. This match is the one to tell which team has it; not only for the Heineken Cup, but the rest of the season. Unfortunately only one team can win, so when it comes down to the wire I see the every well perfoming French to top this match off.

Pool 5:

Cardiff Blues vs. Harlequins: Truly a match up that most will over look. It is two non-well perfoming teams taking the field against each other. As much as I would like to cheer the Welsh team, I don't see them taking this game.

Toulouse vs. Sale: Toulouse the whole way. They are performing well for the tournament they are currently in, and Sale is struggling to make ends meet.

Pool 6:

Leinster vs. London Irish: Another great match up. Leinster, the top team in the Magners League takes on the No.2 team in the Guinness Premiership. This will be an exciting game, and one that all will have to follow till the end. But despite a good match up I still see the well performing Leinster team beating out the London Irish.

Scarlets vs. Brive: I would love to say that my favorite club team in the whole world would win this one, but that would be like having Fiji win the World Cup. As there may be hope there it is highly improbable. Brive is performing decent in the French 14, while the Scarlets are second to last. So needless to say, Brive will win this weekends game.

~Conner