The Welsh team is awful right now. Sure, Stephen Jones can kick his goals, but the team is choking without James Hook being played in a position where he can show his playmaking prowess. Instead, he's stuck back at fullback and has to rely on counter attacks to show any skill. Shane Williams was fantastic last season and during the Grand Slam of 2008, but is bad right now. I think he is a liability for Wales. He tends to be streaky in his scoring anyway, but he is going on a long streak without many tries for both club and country. To add to it, the Samoan team played poorly overall and should have won the game if not for their terrible place kicking. Wales were simply bad. They are lucky to face another poorly performing team this weekend in Argentina.
England is also playing badly. They are struggling to find any points except through Jonny Wilkinson, who has had to kick multiple drop goals just to pad the English scoreline. And with the All Blacks as their next opponent, they look ready to lose.
Ireland played below their form of the Six Nations, but not terribly. O'Gara managed to regain some of his kicking abilities that faulted him during the opening Heineken Cup rounds, and a late O'Driscoll try salvaged some dignity in a draw against the Aussies who got the short end of the stick this past Tri-Nations season. They are a great team and just were outshone by the better All Blacks and Springboks.
The Sringboks, however, are on a bad run. They lost to Leicester, they lost to France, they lost to Saracens. This is not the South Africa that we have seen since the RWC. They may be able to reclaim some winning form against Italy this weekend.
The Games
Ireland v. Fiji
Ireland should be able to defeat Fiji, especially at home. The Fijians tend to play with more flair and wing play than the other island nations, which is where Ireland are slightly weaker. With Fitzgerald gone, they may struggle more. But the big news is that Jonny Sexton will be making his Ireland debut against Fiji, with full and complete support from Brian O'Driscoll. Sexton is a fantastic fly half and has proven a worthy replacement for Contepomi at Leinster. I expect an Irish win.
Italy v. South Africa
South Africa should be able to regain their winning ways against Italy despite the Italian passion that shown against the All Blacks. South African win.
England v. New Zealand
This is the big test for Jonny Wilkinson. He can kick his goals, no question. But will he be able to finally open up the defense of the All Blacks? Wales played well against New Zealand, and England have the ability to upset the All Blacks, but not on their current form. They have to score tries to beat New Zealand, and right now only Jonny Wilkinson's boot is scoring points. All Black victory.
Wales v. Argentina
I would like to pick Argentina to win, and given recent Welsh form, I could be right. However, Argentina has also been stripped of their biggest players in Hernandez, Contepomi and Leguizamon. The Welsh should be able to win given the current form of the Argentinians, however Argentina can always upset big teams.
France v. Samoa
France should win. Samoa can really only hope for upsets against Wales and Scotland. France just defeated the World Champion Springboks and will still be on a high.
Scotland v. Australia
A while back, I may have been wiling to give Scotland an upset here, but Australia has proven strong against England and Ireland. With Scotland often relying on Chris Paterson, Australia should have little to worry about.
~Tyler
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