The first Lions test is over and done. What has it told us? That the Englishmen in the front row are bad, and that Ugo Monye has no handling ability.
In the second test I would keep Gethin Jenkins, but replace Mears and Vickery with Rees and possibly Hayes. I might be partial to Hayes and Adam Jones is fantastic but, I am not so sure an all Welsh front row would work. The second row is still great and no changes should be made. I have the same to say about the back row, especially after Croft's fine display with two tries. Wallace and Heaslip were both very good.
Mike Phillips should keep his starting spot but I think James Hook should get a shot at the fly half spot. Ronan O'Gara is very good, and a personal favorite at fly half, but when he has been on the field during the tour, the Lions have been less than great. His kicking has been great though. I would keep Bowe on the wing but maybe switch Monye for Fitzgerald. The center pairing of Roberts and O'Driscoll is still golden, however. The two worked very well together. If Lee Byrne recovers from his foot injury, I would start him at fullback. Otherwise, Kearney is the best choice.
Overall, not too many changes should be made but a few definitely should be made, especially to the front row.
Test two has a better chance of producing a Lions' victory but I still can't see the Springboks losing. Not after their incredible defense and the Lions' show against the Emerging Boks yesterday. Springboks by less than a score.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Friday, June 19, 2009
The First Lions Test
I will not be watching the second and third tests when they air, as I will be gone on vacation.
This first test will swing the momentum one way or the other, obviously. Most of the Northern Hemisphere is giving the Lions either a huge chance or a series win while most of the Southern Hemisphere is generally going for a Springboks' win. Breaking the team down could help.
The two front rows for the first test look pretty even. Gethin Jenkins probably has the edge over Tendai Mtawarira, but I believe the Springboks have the overall advantage. Bismarck du Plessis is a far better hooker than Lee Mears, and Phil Vickery is neither the player (anymore) nor the leader that John Smit is. Front row to the Springboks.
In the second row, we will see the best lineout battle the world has to offer. From the start of the tour, people were talking about the battle between Alun-Wyn Jones & Paul O'Connell and Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield. These are the two best second row combinations in world rugby. Unfortunately for the Lions, Botha and Matfield play together on club and national level and are very used to each other. I think that Jones and O'Connell have the ability to outperform the two Springboks, but it should not be expected. Second row to the Springboks.
The back row is where many games are won and lost. For the Lions, this may be a good thing. I would feel much more worried if Burger and Kankowski were in the Springbok lineup. Pierre Spies is one of the best No. 8's in the world, but Jamie Heaslip is just coming into his own. David Wallace is the better of the two openside flankers, and also the best flanker in either lineup. Tom Croft is probably the fastest flanker in world rugby, which will also give the Lions a boost. Juan Smith has the ability to turn a game around through his work at the breakdown, but the Lions are better in the back row. Back row to the Lions.
The half back pairings are very familiar for the Lions, with two Welshmen lining up, but the choices made by the Springboks are slightly confusing. Ruan Pienaar has played all over the field, but I feel he is best at scrum half. It will be interesting to see how the game shakes out with him at fly half, somewhere I'd expect to see Francois Steyn instead (who starts at fullback). Fourie du Preez is the best choice at scrum half for South Africa, and better than Mike Phillips. Half backs are tied at one a piece here. Fly half to the Lions, scrum half to the Springboks.
The centers for the Lions were known before the tour began. Or at least once Shanklin's injury became apparent. Jamie Roberts and Brian O'Driscoll will be fantastic in the center. For the Springboks, Jean de Villiers and Adi Jacobs have strength and speed, but not necessarily the playmaking ability of their Lions counterparts. Centers to the Lions.
The back three will provide the excitement in the game, especially with Brian Habana out there. Habana is still the world's best wing, but Tommy Bowe has graduated from a 'cherry picker' to a genuine try scorer and creator. Ugo Monye is probably not as good as JP Pietersen, but provides more strength than the Springbok. At fullback, Lee Byrne is a bigger attacking force than Francois Steyn, but Steyn has the better kicking game. The wings go to the Springboks, but fullback goes to the Lions.
Overall, more positions were given to the Springboks. When it comes down to it, it looks like the Lions have the better chance if it comes down to penalty kicks. But, if it is an attacking game, the Springboks look to have the better chance. If Brian O'Driscoll is on his game, the Lions can win. At this point, despite my original choice to give the Lions a series win, I must give game one of the series to the Springboks. The Lions have not played exceptionally well throughout the tour. If the Lions win, it will be no huge shock at all, but it is not to be expected.
~Tyler
This first test will swing the momentum one way or the other, obviously. Most of the Northern Hemisphere is giving the Lions either a huge chance or a series win while most of the Southern Hemisphere is generally going for a Springboks' win. Breaking the team down could help.
The two front rows for the first test look pretty even. Gethin Jenkins probably has the edge over Tendai Mtawarira, but I believe the Springboks have the overall advantage. Bismarck du Plessis is a far better hooker than Lee Mears, and Phil Vickery is neither the player (anymore) nor the leader that John Smit is. Front row to the Springboks.
In the second row, we will see the best lineout battle the world has to offer. From the start of the tour, people were talking about the battle between Alun-Wyn Jones & Paul O'Connell and Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield. These are the two best second row combinations in world rugby. Unfortunately for the Lions, Botha and Matfield play together on club and national level and are very used to each other. I think that Jones and O'Connell have the ability to outperform the two Springboks, but it should not be expected. Second row to the Springboks.
The back row is where many games are won and lost. For the Lions, this may be a good thing. I would feel much more worried if Burger and Kankowski were in the Springbok lineup. Pierre Spies is one of the best No. 8's in the world, but Jamie Heaslip is just coming into his own. David Wallace is the better of the two openside flankers, and also the best flanker in either lineup. Tom Croft is probably the fastest flanker in world rugby, which will also give the Lions a boost. Juan Smith has the ability to turn a game around through his work at the breakdown, but the Lions are better in the back row. Back row to the Lions.
The half back pairings are very familiar for the Lions, with two Welshmen lining up, but the choices made by the Springboks are slightly confusing. Ruan Pienaar has played all over the field, but I feel he is best at scrum half. It will be interesting to see how the game shakes out with him at fly half, somewhere I'd expect to see Francois Steyn instead (who starts at fullback). Fourie du Preez is the best choice at scrum half for South Africa, and better than Mike Phillips. Half backs are tied at one a piece here. Fly half to the Lions, scrum half to the Springboks.
The centers for the Lions were known before the tour began. Or at least once Shanklin's injury became apparent. Jamie Roberts and Brian O'Driscoll will be fantastic in the center. For the Springboks, Jean de Villiers and Adi Jacobs have strength and speed, but not necessarily the playmaking ability of their Lions counterparts. Centers to the Lions.
The back three will provide the excitement in the game, especially with Brian Habana out there. Habana is still the world's best wing, but Tommy Bowe has graduated from a 'cherry picker' to a genuine try scorer and creator. Ugo Monye is probably not as good as JP Pietersen, but provides more strength than the Springbok. At fullback, Lee Byrne is a bigger attacking force than Francois Steyn, but Steyn has the better kicking game. The wings go to the Springboks, but fullback goes to the Lions.
Overall, more positions were given to the Springboks. When it comes down to it, it looks like the Lions have the better chance if it comes down to penalty kicks. But, if it is an attacking game, the Springboks look to have the better chance. If Brian O'Driscoll is on his game, the Lions can win. At this point, despite my original choice to give the Lions a series win, I must give game one of the series to the Springboks. The Lions have not played exceptionally well throughout the tour. If the Lions win, it will be no huge shock at all, but it is not to be expected.
~Tyler
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Summer Tours and the Mystery of the French
After a crazy weekend of rugby, the world pecking order seems jostled. The French beat the All Blacks in New Zealand, Argentina defeated the English and an 18 year old scored three tries against the Italians.
New Zealand never really showed up to the match, or at least not like the All Blacks usually do. Fly-half Donald was average, and McAlister didn't make much of an impact when he came onto the field. Only one player really stood out for the All Blacks: their left wing Corey Jane. He set up a try and was always looking for the ball. Even Joe Rokocoko seemed to be absent at times. The French scrum-half Dupuy was kicking everything he had the chance to and looks to have solidified his immediate start in a French jersey.
Argentina has been somewhat inconsistent in recent games. At one point a few years ago, they had won five out of six matches against France. But, recent games have had odd results. Just one week prior to this England victory, the Pumas lost by over 20 points. Last autumn, Argentina beat Italy and lost a close game to France, but got beat well by the Irish. Just before that, they lost by over 50 to South Africa. Everyone knows that Argentina can beat any team, but they are less than consistent when compared to the other Top 10 teams. I expect this to change once Argentina is admitted into the Tri-Nations and receives a consistent schedule.
James O'Connor. Everyone in Australia already knew about him and everyone in the British Isles is acting like he just came out of nowhere. I am a passive Western Force fan, and saw him score his first Super 14 try last year when he was 17. He is a very good player, but I am not sure he will have much of a chance to start this Tri-Nations season. His hat trick of tries could have been only a brace, since Giteau could have gone himself on one. I will give O'Connor the credit he deserves for slipping out of a tackle from the world's best No.8, Sergio Parisse, before scoring his third. With plenty of other quality fullbacks in Australia, O'Connor will have to prove himself as not just a fluke. He has the ability and, right now, the head, to become a great player.
Now...there is a mystery surrounding the French. The French seem to believe that players have short shelf lives. Compared to a team like Ireland, who has a relatively large group of core players who have been around for years, France has a small core. There is a lot of rotating in and out, which sometimes works for them and sometimes fails. Some players, like Pelous, have seen over 100 caps. But, looking at the players who score the points, the caps have disappeared. Three players have over 1000 points in international rugby. Almost 20 have over 500 points. The top French player does not even top 400.
So, my question is...how does France find so many different players that can score points and keep the team competitive, without having long careers? Sure, some top scorers for France weren't kickers, such as Christophe Dominici, but even just looking at the past few years...scrum halves and fly halves cannot seem to nail down a spot. Tillous-Borde, Parra, Ellisalde, Yachvili, Dupuy. All five of them are top notch scrum halves, and most of them are kickers. Michilak, Trin-Duc, Beauxis, Skrela, Traille. All five of them are top notch fly halves. Maybe the question should not be how I asked it, but why does France have such a huge talent base to pick from?
~Tyler
New Zealand never really showed up to the match, or at least not like the All Blacks usually do. Fly-half Donald was average, and McAlister didn't make much of an impact when he came onto the field. Only one player really stood out for the All Blacks: their left wing Corey Jane. He set up a try and was always looking for the ball. Even Joe Rokocoko seemed to be absent at times. The French scrum-half Dupuy was kicking everything he had the chance to and looks to have solidified his immediate start in a French jersey.
Argentina has been somewhat inconsistent in recent games. At one point a few years ago, they had won five out of six matches against France. But, recent games have had odd results. Just one week prior to this England victory, the Pumas lost by over 20 points. Last autumn, Argentina beat Italy and lost a close game to France, but got beat well by the Irish. Just before that, they lost by over 50 to South Africa. Everyone knows that Argentina can beat any team, but they are less than consistent when compared to the other Top 10 teams. I expect this to change once Argentina is admitted into the Tri-Nations and receives a consistent schedule.
James O'Connor. Everyone in Australia already knew about him and everyone in the British Isles is acting like he just came out of nowhere. I am a passive Western Force fan, and saw him score his first Super 14 try last year when he was 17. He is a very good player, but I am not sure he will have much of a chance to start this Tri-Nations season. His hat trick of tries could have been only a brace, since Giteau could have gone himself on one. I will give O'Connor the credit he deserves for slipping out of a tackle from the world's best No.8, Sergio Parisse, before scoring his third. With plenty of other quality fullbacks in Australia, O'Connor will have to prove himself as not just a fluke. He has the ability and, right now, the head, to become a great player.
Now...there is a mystery surrounding the French. The French seem to believe that players have short shelf lives. Compared to a team like Ireland, who has a relatively large group of core players who have been around for years, France has a small core. There is a lot of rotating in and out, which sometimes works for them and sometimes fails. Some players, like Pelous, have seen over 100 caps. But, looking at the players who score the points, the caps have disappeared. Three players have over 1000 points in international rugby. Almost 20 have over 500 points. The top French player does not even top 400.
So, my question is...how does France find so many different players that can score points and keep the team competitive, without having long careers? Sure, some top scorers for France weren't kickers, such as Christophe Dominici, but even just looking at the past few years...scrum halves and fly halves cannot seem to nail down a spot. Tillous-Borde, Parra, Ellisalde, Yachvili, Dupuy. All five of them are top notch scrum halves, and most of them are kickers. Michilak, Trin-Duc, Beauxis, Skrela, Traille. All five of them are top notch fly halves. Maybe the question should not be how I asked it, but why does France have such a huge talent base to pick from?
~Tyler
Monday, June 1, 2009
End of Season and The Lions Tour
The domestic seasons are coming to a close.
The Super 14 Final was both entertaining and shocking this past weekend. The Bulls ran riot in South Africa against the visiting Kiwi side, the Chiefs. Captain Muliana and massive No. 8 Lauaki could do little to stop the Bulls' offense. The score that really put the game out of reach came in the first half: a Bryan Habana intercept try. The Chiefs never really looked to have a chance in this game, although the final score of 61-17 was heavily unfair to them and ther fantastic season.
With regard to the Lions v. South Africa tests coming up later this month, this is a good sign for South Africa. To be able to demolish a team like the Chiefs with what appeared to be ease proves how strong the Springboks' options are. In addition to the Bulls' performance, the Royal XV team showed the Lions how tough it will be. Personally, I expected the Lions to come out and dominate, especially after how well the Home Nations played in their domestic leagues and Heineken Cup. The year has been extremely good for the Irish, where the Triple Crown, Grand Slam, Heineken Cup and Magner's League trophies all reside this year. But, the Royal XV were on the front foot from the start. An early O'Gara penalty was the only lead the Lions would see until Lee Byrne scored a sensational up-and-under try around the 73rd minute.
One great sign for the Lions is that O'Gara's kicking game is back. I was never in doubt that he could recover it, but it was the source of much speculation during the tail end of the Six Nations and Magner's League. He was a perfect 100% on his place kicks and only overcooked one kick for touch.
The down side for the Lions is that no one wanted to take charge, not even the captain Paul O'Connell. A poor start for Keith Earls, with four straight knock-ons, might have made other players realize their jitters as well, but only Lee Byrne looked good throughout.
The next game is with a completely different lineup, this Wednesday against the Golden Lions. Brian O'Driscoll will lead the team on that day, and the squad looks more formidable. I expect another victory, and a more fluid game of passing as well.
~Tyler
The Super 14 Final was both entertaining and shocking this past weekend. The Bulls ran riot in South Africa against the visiting Kiwi side, the Chiefs. Captain Muliana and massive No. 8 Lauaki could do little to stop the Bulls' offense. The score that really put the game out of reach came in the first half: a Bryan Habana intercept try. The Chiefs never really looked to have a chance in this game, although the final score of 61-17 was heavily unfair to them and ther fantastic season.
With regard to the Lions v. South Africa tests coming up later this month, this is a good sign for South Africa. To be able to demolish a team like the Chiefs with what appeared to be ease proves how strong the Springboks' options are. In addition to the Bulls' performance, the Royal XV team showed the Lions how tough it will be. Personally, I expected the Lions to come out and dominate, especially after how well the Home Nations played in their domestic leagues and Heineken Cup. The year has been extremely good for the Irish, where the Triple Crown, Grand Slam, Heineken Cup and Magner's League trophies all reside this year. But, the Royal XV were on the front foot from the start. An early O'Gara penalty was the only lead the Lions would see until Lee Byrne scored a sensational up-and-under try around the 73rd minute.
One great sign for the Lions is that O'Gara's kicking game is back. I was never in doubt that he could recover it, but it was the source of much speculation during the tail end of the Six Nations and Magner's League. He was a perfect 100% on his place kicks and only overcooked one kick for touch.
The down side for the Lions is that no one wanted to take charge, not even the captain Paul O'Connell. A poor start for Keith Earls, with four straight knock-ons, might have made other players realize their jitters as well, but only Lee Byrne looked good throughout.
The next game is with a completely different lineup, this Wednesday against the Golden Lions. Brian O'Driscoll will lead the team on that day, and the squad looks more formidable. I expect another victory, and a more fluid game of passing as well.
~Tyler
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