Week Three!

In the week off, there have been many changes. The Scots suffered many injuries, Jerry Flannery was banned and Ronan O'Gara was dropped. There were also many threats to drop Jonny Wilkinson, but none of those threats came from sources that mattered. The only opinion that mattered was Martin Johnson, who didn't drop him.

Wales v. France

Ireland and England will be hoping for a Welsh victory, but they will be hard-pressed. Wales played very well two weekends ago, but only in the final ten minutes. Scotland dominated the majority of the game. France dominated the entire game against Ireland, especially the scrums. James Hook has been very good in the outside center slot so Wales will have a good center pairing along with Roberts.

The French team has been anything but guaranteed for the past few seasons, but the lack of consistency hasn't seemed to affect them. France should be able to win this one, although Wales will have home field advantage.

Italy v. Scotland

Italy has played relatively well this tournament so far, and Scotland just lost three key players. Chris Paterson is a needed player, but Dan Parks did extremely well against Wales, who only came into the game after he exited. The problem with both of these teams is their severe lack of offensive abilities. Italy has relied on Mirco Bergamasco's boot, who was not a kicker to my knowledge, but has stepped up well enough. Scotland normally relies on Paterson or Parks, and this game should be no different.

Given how well Scotland played last time out, they should be able to win.

England v. Ireland

This is the biggest game of the weekend. The loser of this game may well enough be out of contention all together. Except for 2008, Ireland has wont his game every year since 2004, regardless of whether the host city was Dublin or London. Ireland is still on a high from the past year's success, and I was hoping that Jonathan Sexton would get a chance at fly half. And I am extremely happy that he did. He has proven himself and maybe a change of pace is what the Irish need. In addition, the English have not seen Sexton very much and he could catch them off guard. His kicking has been very good all season and his attacking ability is also very good. Whether or not he is as good as O'Gara is yet to be determined, but he could be the spark that the Irish need after the loss to France.

England on the other hand just came off a sluggish win over Italy and will want to prove themselves. Wilkinson and the rest of the team will retain their spots, which will either work well or very poorly for the English. Overall, Ireland looks like the better team, despite the poor showing against France.

~Tyler

Week Two results

France v. Ireland

Week two's games told one story: France is the favorite to win. The French played a fantastic game all around, with very few mistakes outside of their lineout. Paul O'Connell was all over the French lineout ball, stealing heaps of ball seemingly at will. Unfortunately, Ireland could not do much else. O'Gara did not get much chance with the boot, and while he did not knock the ball on or turn it over with much frequency, he got caught too often with the ball and lost territory. His kicking game was good, as always. Brian O'Driscoll played well and did very well in his final pass for David Wallace's try, but didn't stamp his authority over the game. The normally fierce player of Rob Kearney was pulled off early with an injury, and Paddy Wallace was nothing in replacement. Cian Healy was awful, as was the scrum. Healy's side did even worse than Hayes' side, but both sides performed poorly. France dominated the scrum every single time, even more so when the Irish were down to 14 men.

Overall, only O'Connell's lineout skills and Tommy Bowe's amazing chases after a high kick proved well. Bowe hammered the receiver on numerous occasions and I am not quite sure where he picked up that physicality. Some of the time, he was appearing to play with skills similar to Doug Howlett! Nonetheless, Ireland was very poor in the scrums, poor on defense, decent on attack, but very poor on finishing. France was incredible in the scrums, good on attack, very good on finishing, and absolutely terrible in the lineouts.

Italy v. England

Jonny Wilkinson, where are you? The man is so fantastic and so consistent with his kicks, that it is hard to believe that he is even capable of missing a kick from time to time. But, he missed three. Fortunately for England, the five points via a Mathew Tait try proved the margin of victory. Now, I've been waving Tait's flag for a very long time, to no avail. Tait was fantastic for England at fullback during the World Cup in 2007, far better than Armitage has been (save his kicking game). Yet, Tait had not been in the squad for a few seasons. I'm glad to see him back, regardless of being put in a different position.

Anyway, England was able to scrape away a victory in this game. They were lucky, but Italy didn't really put up a huge fight when it came to tries. Italy is not known for their fancy footwork or long runs, but they need tries if they want to beat the top nations. Overall, Italy relied on their defense and Mirco Bergamasco's boot, while England would like to rely on Wilkinson's boot again in the future. It is very unlikely that Wilkinson would have another poor game with the boot, given his determination.

Wales v. Scotland

One of the truly great comebacks. Yet, it must be said that this was not a game won by the Welsh. Instead, it was thrown away by the Scots. Two yellow cards in the final ten minutes, and injuries to Tom Evans, Rory Lamont and Chris Paterson spelled defeat for them. The yellow cards were totally unnecessary. When Paterson was taken off, the Scots were ahead but looked worried without their key player. Yet, Dan Parks proved his critics wrong by taking ahold of the game and dominating in every facet of his game. He kicked magnificently. He tried his best to get the offense moving, but could not be awarded with a try. He was taken off the field with a knock and replaced by Phil Godman, who immediately committed a critical error and was given a yellow. I was worried when Godman was put on and am, apparently, the only non-fan of his. Edinburgh fans seem to worship the man, but I have never been overly impressed by him. Parks cannot be blamed at all for the loss. He was Man of the Match.

Wales, however, were slightly lazy for most of the game. Until the final ten minutes. A try from Lee Byrne jump started the team and Halfpenny crossed with a few minutes to go. Shane Williams eventually scored under the posts to win the game on full time.

Wales proved that they can beat any team on any day, yet they needed the boost of two yellow carded Scots before they got rolling. Scotland self destructed when they needed to hold together the most. The heavy injuries to the Scots will hurt them for the rest of the tournament, possibly even threatening their chances of beating Italy.

~Verdicts~

The way it looks right now, Italy has their best chance of recent years when it comes to beating Scotland in two weeks. France looks to defeat the Welsh at home and Ireland's ability to defeat England for a sixth time in seven years is shrinking. Dan Parks needs to be solid again for Scotland, Wales needs to play like they at the end for the entire 80 and Ireland should start Jonny Sexton.

~Tyler

Round One: COMPLETE

Ireland, England and France took the victories last weekend, but who can continue in week two? Only two of the three teams can have 2-0 records since Ireland and France meet in Paris.

The previous weekend gave typical results for Six Nations games. Ireland typically does poorly when they open the tournament against Italy, and they are being dubbed as "flat" for a 13 point victory. Ireland still played well enough, with a few passages of very good passing and running. However, the typically fantastic Rob Kearney was mediocre at best, and he is very often involved in Irish scores. Tommy Bowe got little ball, although he was very solid in defense. Brian O'Driscoll was also good, but it seemed that Gordon D'Arcy was the key offensive weapon (with the exception of Ronan O'Gara's boot). Italy looked very good defensively, but relatively poor and boring offensively. Except for a breaking run from Mirco Bergamasco, the Italian backline was sluggish. Robertson did pounce on a mistake from Kearney for the Italians' only try, but nothing was self-created.

France, on the other hand, used their beefy center of Bastareaud to subdue Scotland. Scotland typically has to ride the points from their golden boot, Chris Paterson, who just didn't get enough opportunities to pile up points. It is good to see Euan Murray coming back next weekend, but Scotland really lacks the strength in the backline to score many tries. France, on the other hand, have all the power and finesse to score try after try and it was really a slight underperformance from France in the fact that only two tries were scored.

England's winning margin was flattered by a Welsh yellow card, earned by Alun Wyn Jones, who has received harsh criticism. Very harsh, actually. Even the Welsh coach, Warren Gatland, hung him out to dry. England did score a heavy amount of points while up a man, and they should be able to pile on the points against Italy. Jonny Wilkinson was very strong in both attack and defense as well as with the boot and should keep up the good performance.

Round 2

Wales v. Scotland

Despite the poor opening weekend, Wales should be able to defeat the Scots. Scotland relies too heavily on Chris Paterson for points and the Welsh youngster, Leigh Halfpenny, is being given a start. Halfpenny is not only a good backup kicker, but he adds some needed speed to the team. Last weekend, the Welsh looked slow. Of all players, James Hook had the most energy and was even playing out of position at outside center. His try was very well worked and well deserved.

Wales to win.

France v. Ireland

This is one of, if not the most important match of the tournament. In many years past, the Ireland/France game has decided the Championship. The only downside: its in France. Ireland has not managed to beat France since 2000 when playing away from home. The two lonely victories came in Dublin. The key to an Irish victory will be early points. France has a knack for scoring late, so Ireland needs to get the score running early. However, the French crowd has a huge impact on their team, and if there are too many mistakes, they will turn on the players. Ireland must try to work for this advantage. Yet, the French were the best team of the past weekend and they have the historical advantage over the Irish.

France to win, with the difference within reach of a kick.

Italy v. England

England will want to pile on the points against the Italians. The only upside for Italy this year is that Mauro Bergamasco will be starting at flanker, not scrum half. Last year's terrible mistake gave the English a big advantage on the score table, but look for it to be less this year. Jonny Wilkinson knows how to get his backline moving, but he can only be as good as his team. Monye was quiet, Armitage was quiet. Tait was the great player that England has skipped over time and time again, and Flutey was injured. Still, Italy has no chance.

England to win

~Tyler

Six Nations 2010

This year's Six Nations offers a different mixture of players. The older and long-serving players of France are fewer this year, with players like Pelous long gone. Italy is being given some hope by some pundits, as is Scotland in their opening weekend. Jonny Wilkinson has returned as has Mathew Tait. Nontheless, Ireland and France are the two favorites.

Ireland v. Italy
The biggest headline: No Sergio Parisse. He is the best No. 8 in the world, and without him, their captain, Italy have very little chance. Ireland has been playing very well. They are coming off of an unbeaten year, with their two biggest clubs making it into the Quarter Finals of the Heineken Cup yet again. Ronan O'Gara has been given the start at fly half due to an injury to Sexton. However, there is a big problem with the kind of praise that Sexton has been receiving. Sexton played fantastically in last year's Heineken Cup and he played extremely well in the autumn tests, but this does not mean he is the number one Irish fly half. Two international games? Not enough ground to prove himself. O'Gara is and should be the starting fly half, especially since he has recovered his kicking game that abandoned him earlier this season. Not to say that Sexton is not the next Irish fly half, he is leagues above Paddy Wallace! But, he is not so deserving. Yet.

That said, Ireland should be able to defeat Italy, and maybe stake an early claim at first place on the table.

England v. Wales
Despite the fact that Shane Williams will be starting, and he always plays very well against England, the Welsh will have many problems. First of all, their clubs have been terrible so far this season. Only the Ospreys are doing anything right and, in my opinion, they should be winning every single game given the talent on their lineup. With a back three of Shane Williams, Lee Byrne and Tommy Bowe, the Ospreys should be scoring four tries a night, week in and week out. However, that is not the case.

I'm not too happy with this sudden abandonment of James Hook. The man has been fantastic for Wales and the Ospreys, not to mention filling in for the Lions, yet he has lost his spot to a kid, Dan Biggar. Biggar, to his credit, has been very good, but it seems that the management are shuffling Hook around the field just to keep him in the lineup. He is most effective at fly half, but at least Gatland has not put him at fullback!

England, on the other hand, are on a high. The Premiership has been strong this season, and Jonny Wilkinson is tearing apart the French league across the Channel. One man does not make a team, but England is always better when Wilkinson is on the field.

Weighing the options, Wales just look out of form and without talent this season. England to win.

Scotland v. France
I have heard a few whispers of an upset in the first weekend. To be honest, the opening weekend is the best chance to beat the French. France is probably the most dangerous team in the world from the simple fact that they are completely unpredictable, if not inconsistent. One week they can defeat the All Blacks, the next they make themselves look silly against England (who seems to own a key to the French defense, by the way).

Scotland has the defense, but they lack offense. There are not many finishers in their backline, and Chris Paterson can only kick goals if his team gets field position. Look for more forward drives than free running plays. France, however, is the epitome of free running rugby and Scotland will be tested, even more so than against Australia in the autumn.

Overall, France looks to win this one. Scotland can hang on to the hope that their defense shows up and plays big, which will help the French play into their hands. But the Scots cannot count on that.

Early tournament prediction: Ireland to repeat, but no Grand Slam (Triple Crown, yes)

~Tyler

Wales Heard Me and Scotland are out to prove something

And evidence shows that someone must have printed a copy of my last blog and passed it around the Welsh dressing room this past weekend, as they sent Argentina packing with a very comfortable win. Granted, the Argentines are weak at the moment due to injuries and retirements, but it is still Argentina. Not only Wales but Shane Williams proved me wrong. He came through with two tries! James Hook still deserves a bigger part for Wales, but it is good to see the country on the upswing.

In other news SCOTLAND! Scotland has pulled the biggest upset this century by defeating Australia. Scotland was not on a long string of victories. There are no players of the quality one might call "game breaking" such as Bryan Habana or Dan Carter. In fact, the player everyone raves about, Chris Paterson, was sitting the bench and only got on the board thanks to a huge drop goal. I was amazed to see the man wearing the #21 jersey, but he has yet to nail down a specialized position. He is a great winger, but not as speedy as Sean Lamont or Danielli. He is solid under the high ball with a great punt, but without the counter attacking skill of Hugo Southwell. He is a reliable fly half, but does not start every week like Godman. Alas, I digress, but Chris Paterson deserves to get into the game more often, especially with his incredibly reliable boot and his overall skills. Scotland face Argentina next weekend and have the potential to win all their autumn tests.

Ireland showed class and Jonny Sexton was MoM, perhaps giving a glimpse of what is to come for Ireland. Ireland has been in some trouble recently, most specifically in the fly half position. While they enjoyed David Humphreys and Ronan O'Gara for well over a decade, O'Gara will probably be gone within five years and no one was putting their hand up as a solid replacement until Sexton came through for Leinster. He is bound to falter soon, albeit for only a game or so, because he has been on such a long string of good luck. Here's to a long career.

An England loss to the All Blacks and a French victory over Samoa are two other small points to consider, neither of which were ever in doubt.

This week's games

Italy v. Samoa

These two teams are ranked as 12 and 13, with Italy taking the lower rank. However, Italy is still the better team. Unfortunately for them, they consistently lose due to their aggressive schedule in the Six Nations. None of the Six Nations games are guaranteed wins for the Italians, and rarely are wins ever extracted except against Scotland. Samoa is a good team, but Italy should win.

Ireland v. South Africa

Normally, even my Irish pride would keep me from predicting a victory against the Springboks, especially a World and Tri-Nations Champion side. BUT, South Africa have lost everything that has come their way this series, except against the lowly Italians. I think Ireland can come through with a victory given their recent form and South Africa's bad games.

Scotland v. Argentina

Argentina is on a bad luck streak while Scotland is on a very big high after the upset over Australia. Argentina can always upset teams, but not now. They are missing their stars and Rodriguez cannot be held accountable for all of his team's points. Scotland victory. Now, lets see Chris Paterson start!

Wales v. Australia

Australia will be fighting hard to reclaim some dignity after losing to Scotland for the first time in 27 years, but Wales will also be trying to prove their strength and keep going after the big win over Argentina. Yet, Australia's need for a win is greater. The Wallabies always produce a good game against the Welsh, with some very close scores in recent years. Count on Giteau to make his kicks this weekend.

France v. New Zealand

France and Australia are the two teams that have the key to the All Black defense. They always seem to be able to beat them, France especially in the World Cup. The All Blacks have been strong lately. Good enough when it counted, but never overpowering. I am betting on a French victory this weekend, especially being at home. They split the series with the All Blacks in New Zealand this past June and French flair in the running game is unmatched.

~Tyler

Four out of Six

One for two in the first week and four for six in the second week. Not a bad tally, especially since one of my mistakes ended in a tie last weekend.

The Welsh team is awful right now. Sure, Stephen Jones can kick his goals, but the team is choking without James Hook being played in a position where he can show his playmaking prowess. Instead, he's stuck back at fullback and has to rely on counter attacks to show any skill. Shane Williams was fantastic last season and during the Grand Slam of 2008, but is bad right now. I think he is a liability for Wales. He tends to be streaky in his scoring anyway, but he is going on a long streak without many tries for both club and country. To add to it, the Samoan team played poorly overall and should have won the game if not for their terrible place kicking. Wales were simply bad. They are lucky to face another poorly performing team this weekend in Argentina.

England is also playing badly. They are struggling to find any points except through Jonny Wilkinson, who has had to kick multiple drop goals just to pad the English scoreline. And with the All Blacks as their next opponent, they look ready to lose.

Ireland played below their form of the Six Nations, but not terribly. O'Gara managed to regain some of his kicking abilities that faulted him during the opening Heineken Cup rounds, and a late O'Driscoll try salvaged some dignity in a draw against the Aussies who got the short end of the stick this past Tri-Nations season. They are a great team and just were outshone by the better All Blacks and Springboks.

The Sringboks, however, are on a bad run. They lost to Leicester, they lost to France, they lost to Saracens. This is not the South Africa that we have seen since the RWC. They may be able to reclaim some winning form against Italy this weekend.

The Games

Ireland v. Fiji

Ireland should be able to defeat Fiji, especially at home. The Fijians tend to play with more flair and wing play than the other island nations, which is where Ireland are slightly weaker. With Fitzgerald gone, they may struggle more. But the big news is that Jonny Sexton will be making his Ireland debut against Fiji, with full and complete support from Brian O'Driscoll. Sexton is a fantastic fly half and has proven a worthy replacement for Contepomi at Leinster. I expect an Irish win.

Italy v. South Africa

South Africa should be able to regain their winning ways against Italy despite the Italian passion that shown against the All Blacks. South African win.

England v. New Zealand

This is the big test for Jonny Wilkinson. He can kick his goals, no question. But will he be able to finally open up the defense of the All Blacks? Wales played well against New Zealand, and England have the ability to upset the All Blacks, but not on their current form. They have to score tries to beat New Zealand, and right now only Jonny Wilkinson's boot is scoring points. All Black victory.

Wales v. Argentina

I would like to pick Argentina to win, and given recent Welsh form, I could be right. However, Argentina has also been stripped of their biggest players in Hernandez, Contepomi and Leguizamon. The Welsh should be able to win given the current form of the Argentinians, however Argentina can always upset big teams.

France v. Samoa

France should win. Samoa can really only hope for upsets against Wales and Scotland. France just defeated the World Champion Springboks and will still be on a high.

Scotland v. Australia

A while back, I may have been wiling to give Scotland an upset here, but Australia has proven strong against England and Ireland. With Scotland often relying on Chris Paterson, Australia should have little to worry about.

~Tyler

Dan Carter Cited?

One for two. I have not watched the England v. Australia game, but from the sound of it England did not get off the ground. I had slated them for victory, especially since Jonny Wilkinson is on the top of his game right now. But, alas, one man does not make a team. New Zealand, on the other hand, kept Wales at bay. However, the story of the weekend is how the mighty Springboks fell to Leicester and their new player, Lote Tiqiri. No one would have predicted this, Tiqiri or no Tiqiri.

Lote Tiqiri is a fantastic player and one of the best wingers in the game. But, I have one question for Leicester: Why? Why do you need to become the New York Yankees of rugby? They consistently hire the best players and it does not put them leagues above the rest as it should and does on paper. They currently sit in fourth place, two wins and a bonus point out of first. By the way, first place is in the hands of Saracens. They are the same team that dumped players and payroll last year during transition of management. Go figure.

This coming weekend will have an interesting assortment of games, with few of them looking to provide upsets.

Wales v. Samoa

Don't expect another 1991 RWC repeat here. Samoa has not performed well at all against bigger nations. Wins against USA and Japan don't count for much here. However, Wales will need to be ready for the stereotype "Samoan tackles" this weekend. A Welsh win is nearly inevitable.

France v. South Africa

Here is a good game. South Africa is coming off of a bad weekend against Leicester, albeit with a less-than-best squad. France had a big win against New Zealand in New Zealand in June, but not much after that. Their domestic league is going well, but South Africa is the best team in the world right now. South Africa will win this game so long as they can keep France to less than three tries.

Italy v. New Zealand

Dan Carter might miss this game against Italy due to being cited for a high tackle against the Welsh, but he was not likely to start anyway. There are multiple fly halves waiting for selection for the All Blacks. I'm guessing Stephan Donald will get the nod, with McAlister going to inside center again. Italy usually has better luck against Australia, and the All Blacks should win this one.

England v. Argentina

The last time we saw this match-up, it proved to be a historic victory for Argentina. However, Agustin Pichot and Ignacio Corleto have retired. Juan Martin Hernandez and Felipe Contepomi have retired. I am a big believer in Argentina, and have been since before their "sudden" arrival on the international scene in the 2007 RWC, but even I can't hope for a win here. Well, I can hope. But Argentina should lose this one to Wilkinson and the rest of England.

Scotland v. Fiji

Fiji has a short list of test matches since their glory of the 2007 RWC, with most of those games against lesser opponents. Fiji has the ability to defeat the Scottish, but the Scots play very well at home. Scotland has only lost once to Fiji, back in 1998 in Fiji. Scotland should win this game, but I do not quite understand this seemingly reluctant choice of putting Chris Paterson into the lineup. He is their best player.

Ireland v. Australia

Ireland is starting to lose the high from last season, although three of the top five teams in the Magners League are Irish. Australia does well against England, but has not done very well against Ireland in the Northern Hemisphere recently. I'd love to pick Ireland outright to win this game, but I am having difficulty doing so. Ronan O'Gara has been less than effective lately, especially with his kicking. Jonny Sexton wouldn't be able to defeat Australia if he were to be tossed in instead of O'Gara. Nonetheless, I think Ireland can win.

~Tyler